Ty Kiisel of @task wrote a commentary titled Is Certification Losing Value over at CIOZone.  The ongoing (recent) discussion has been about there being too many unqualified but “certified” people in the workforce, while there are also seasoned professionals who will not get certifications because they believe they no longer hold value.  Geoff Grane over at PapercutPM and I have been going back and forth on this for days now.  Ty said he didn’t think we was ready to say the PMI’s certification was irrelevant quite yet.  He added that he believed the burden of demonstrating the value of any certification rests within the certification body, in this case the PMI.

I agree with him.

Unfortunately, I believe PMI is becoming a victim of its own marketing success.  Though there is an audit process in place, to verify if PMs really have the necessary education and experience to sit for the PMP exam, I don’t believe there are enough auditors to do the job. They are overwhelmed by sheer numbers of applicants.  Let’s not forget the PMI is a for-profit organization. They want more members.

This paradox speaks to potential quality, not value. I think the PMI marketing department has won the war with hiring managers, convincing them the credential has value. What the PMI needs to do now is sell the (global) project management community on the quality of its credential. Until that happens, you’ll have some people racing to the nearest boot camp to get a certification, not to learn best practices.

Read the 47+ comments over at Geoff’s blog

Read Ty’s entire commentary over at CIOZone

Graphic source: Nature.com

People are getting their PMP® (Project Management Professional) certifications at a breakneck pace.  This year alone, new PMPs are averaging  just under 4,300 a month.  You would think this would be great for the industry, having more qualified project managers engaged on projects.  Instead, the question is being raised if people who should not be PMPs are in fact being certified.  Are hiring managers creating an environment for those with no project management experience to game the system?

Geoff Crane sees a pattern.

• A new credential is created
• The credential is marketed, making success promises to hiring managers
• Hiring managers make the credential a requirement
• Shortage of credential-holders increases perceived value of the credential

Get the complete list and what comes next at Papercut Edge.

Every month I get a copy of PMI Today and I annotate 3 data points: New PMP® for the month, new PMPs year-to-date (YTD), and total number of active PMPs. The trend continues, with the new number of PMPs in April totaling 4,718. Year-To-Date total is 19,596. There are a total of 381,111 active PMPs.

The current trend predicts PMI will hit 400,000 active PMP credential holders this year.

Though I’m still worried we’re rapidly reaching a tipping point, I want to congratulate those 4,718 out there who passed the exam.  It’s no cakewalk and I recognize your efforts and achievement.

Of those 4,718, I’ve been in contact with several who passed the exam with the aid of my new product PMPrepFlashcards.com.  Yes, I know, gratuitous plug.

Every month I get a copy of PMI Today and I annotate 3 data points: New PMP® for the month, new PMPs year-to-date (YTD), and total number of active PMPs. The trend continues, with the new number of PMPs in March totaling 5,344. Year-To-Date total is 12,779. There are a total of 375,959 active PMPs.

The current trend predicts PMI will hit 400,000 active PMP credential holders this year.

Though I congratulate those who just got their certifications, I’m still worried we’re rapidly reaching a tipping point.  I have two hopes.  [1] These new PMPs continue to look for new ways to provide value to their customers.  [2] That I am wrong about the prediction that so many PMPs in the mix will create a devaluation of the certification.

Personally, I would like to know how many of the PMPs certified in March prepared for the exam via boot camps and how many organically prepared.  Does it matter if someone went to a PMP bootcamp?

What do you think? Let me know.

Steve Koger wrote a very insightful comment on one of my “Ask Derek” posts titled Required Experience to take the PMP.  In the post, I was trying to assist someone who wants to be a good project manager.  They want to get their PMP but they don’t have the required experience to sit for the exam.  I do want to be clear of three positions.  [1] I don’t believe you have to have a PMP to be a good project manager. [2]  Though the certification may be used more and more as a marketing tool, just to get to the interview, I would hire the person not the credential. [3] I see more people attempting to game the system and get a PMP by going to boot camps and saying they have experience that they actually don’t.

What is happening is an every increasing amount of non-qualified people becoming PMPs.  Unfortunately, I don’t see PMI taking any action to stop it.

This is what Steve wrote:

…while the PMP is more recognized worldwide, I’m not sure it carries as much weight as it used to… is there a marginalization occurring with the PMP credential?

I absolutely feel there is a marginalization occurring with the PMP credential.  Because PMI is a “for profit” organization, they are motivated to get as many people certified as possible. I know they say they are trying to advance the industry of Project Management. I do believe that but I can’t ignore the marketing machine behind the credential. I’m worried there will soon be so many PMPs, the credential is becoming the next Dutch tulip.

I am of course comparing it to the Dutch tulip bulb market bubble of the 1600′s.  This was one of the most famous market bubbles of all time.  Speculation drove the value of tulip bulbs to extremes. At the height of the market, the rarest tulip bulbs traded for as much as six times the average person’s annual salary.  (Source: Investopedia)

I see the PMP credential adoption being part supply and demand and part good marketing.  Fact 1: Too many projects fail.  Fact 2: Having a qualified and empower project manager at the project helm “could” lower the risk of a project failing.  Assumption 1: If you have a PMP as your project manager, your project won’t fail.

As with the economics of scarcity, the less there is of something where a demand exist, the greater the value. But scarcity and shortage are not the same thing. A shortage is when the demand exceeds the supply, usually meaning the price was too low and the market is not clearing. Scarcity always exists, but a shortage can be fixed. I feel the shortage of PMPs was fixed a few years ago. I see market conditions which indicate the PMP bubble is about to burst.

What I want to see is a limitation put on the number of PMPs certified per year.  I want to see PMI go back and require not only a 4 hour exam but also require everyone pass a practical exam.  I want to know that Project Managers are PMPs, not people collecting credentials.  I want to see the stop of Paper PMPs.

I certainly don’t have the answer.  I want to do everything I can to help qualified people get the credential.  But, that will mean nothing if there is a continued devaluation by people who merely pay a fee and pass a test.

graphic courtesy of runningwitht1